The End of Global America & The Rise of Regional Powers

Sharpshooter · 2022-03-27T14:20:06Z

Peter: Now if you had asked me back in the year 2005, what the future of the world was, I would have still said that the United States was going to back away from most everything, but it was going to have to remain aggressively involved in a handful of locations, in order to protect its energy needs. That is no longer the case. Instead of the United States needing to man an almost neo-imperial alliance of 20 to 30 countries, it now is disengaging completely. We have gone into a world now where the United States is likely to only have a half a dozen allies, and maybe not even that many. The United States is going to be very bossy within that network. For example, the Koreans were one of the first countries to figure out what was going on here in the United States. The Korean president came to the Trump administration and basically sought out a bilateral deal on America’s terms, knowing that if the Americans were not involved, if they didn’t want to be involved, they just leave Korea. There’s still a chance that we will. The United States is now presenting the Koreans with a 5 billion dollar annual bill in order to keep American troops. The Koreans are saying, “No,” and the Americans are saying, “Fine, we’ll leave, because we don’t care about the trade deal.” The Koreans only have a few months left to figure out if this is a price they’re willing to pay. The Japanese paid the price. They basically put their entire navy, which is the world’s second largest, at the disposal of the American Navy when it comes to combat operations, something that the Chinese should keep in mind. The Brits thought there were our best friends. But with this whole Huawei thing, the Americans are basically canceling trade talks, until such time as the Brits come around. We’re actually removing military assets from the United Kingdom now. Really, unless you’re in Mexico, which is a special case, any other country that wants a relationship with the United States has to both do things our way and pay us. After 70 years of the Americans doing all the heavy lifting, that’s a big concept to get your mind around. Most countries don’t think the Americans are serious. Most countries think the Americans have too much sunk cost. As an American, that’s how I feel, but people who believe my way have now lost eight straight presidential elections. We’re gone, and everyone else, left, right and center, has moved in a different direction. They’re taking the country with them. ... eventually we’ll see the recreation of the maritime empires of the past, Britain, France, Italy, Japan. If the Chinese are very, very lucky, they might be able to play a role there. And the Persian Gulf still has oil and it is controlled by an absolutely militarily incompetent regime. Eventually, someone is going to make it to the Persian Gulf and eventually, Saudi Arabia will be someone’s colony again. As for who it will be…? A lot of history that has to play out between now and then. ... Mark: For the final question, what does the future of political organizations look like in the coming disorder? For the last 70 or so years, it’s been nation states, where there is a group that has a pretty clearly geographically defined territory. In the older ones, Europe, it tends to also have a defined national identity. In a lot of the newer ones, because the lines were arbitrarily drawn by the Europeans, or some arbitrary national identities, but there are these older tribal identities that could take precedence. The nation state is somewhat new in human history, or only a few hundred years old as a form of social organization. Empires are much of older. City states are much older. Obviously, different continents and different locations will have different political organizational forms, but are there any broad ideas for what these future organizational forms look like in the coming disorder? Peter: Well, the nation-state isn’t going anywhere. The nation-state is a creation of the industrial era, because we’re able to take these specific geographies that were very successful, locally. They built out industrial infrastructure, which increases their power by an order of magnitude, and then they expanded out and as they expanded thye absorbed territories that aren’t quite as good. They assimilate or eradicate people that were not quite as coherent or not quite as advanced. That’s what gave us the nation-state model. That’s not going anywhere. If anything, as the global order breaks down, those local successful geographies which now already have the infrastructure are going to remain very, very durable. But we’re going to overlay that with a neo-imperial environment, because the countries with geographies that are successful, those core nation states, those now out of necessity or opportunity, are going to expand again. They’re going to have a rough transition period, but the weaker places are just probably going to collapse. Then the successful nation-states will be able to use that co...

The world in 2025: China loses power, Russia ‘won’t exist’

https://www.news.com.au/finance/econ...st/news-story/

This is old news, from 2016. But I think it's beginning to be quite accurate in some ways as we are approaching the 2025. Esp on the europe will suffer part. What's your stance?

Archive link:
https://archive.ph/i9Mco

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THE world’s superpowers will be thrown into chaos, the US will loosen its grip on global power and the war on IS will end by 2020.

These are among the powerful predictions the world looks set to face as it comes to grip with new powers, financial slowdowns and emerging economies.

The Decade Forecast report, compiled by private-intelligence firm Stratfor, reveals the issues set to emerge across the globe within the next decade.

Some of the predictions have already begun to come true, including that the EU will be hit with a range of problems — like a rise in nationalism and social unrest — and a slowing down of the Chinese economy.

Stratfor, which successfully predicted Europe’s inability to cope with the financial crisis and the US-jihadi war, also predicts the US, while taking a step back from global issues, is set to remain the top pre-eminent power.

However it predicts many countries face tough times ahead with war, changing politics and declining economies all playing a part in the global shake up that lay ahead.

Among its predictions are:

Islamic State militants will continue to wreak havoc but will lose power.

1. THE US-JIHADI WAR WILL COME TO AN END

By 2020, the two major wars in the Middle East will have largely subsided although it will be a lengthy process.

Stratfor also warn terror attacks will continue to cause havoc, with some being largely successful.

It predicts Islamic militants will continue to be a problem, especially across the Middle East but does reveal militants will remain largely contained.

Germany has already seen a rise in nationalism and anti-refugee sentiment.

2. EUROPE WILL SUFFER

Europe’s diverse systems and demographics will continue to place enormous strain on EU’s institutions.

National leaders will find themselves under increasing pressure from its people, putting a strain on inter-country relationships.

“The main political tendency will be away from multinational solutions to a greater nationalism driven by divergent and diverging economic, social and cultural forces,” Stratfor warns.

The European Union will never return to full strength following last year’s financial crisis and will remain largely divided for the next decade.

Increased nationalism and a rise in Euro scepticism will also hurt the EU with countries looking at solving their own problems before looking outward.

While the EU will continue to exist, its political and miliary operations “will be governed primarily by bilateral or limited multilateral relationships that will be small in

scope and not binding”.

Nations will increasingly adopt protectionist policies as well as look at ways of further securing borders, something which has already begun to take place as Europe grapples with the biggest refugee crisis since World War II.

Sorry, Vladimir Putin things aren’t looking great for Russia.

3. RUSSIA AS WE KNOW IT ‘WON’T EXIST’

The next decade will see Russia “seeking to secure itself” before economic decline hits, Stratfor warn as it continues to act aggressively in the region.

Seeing itself under the gun, it will appear even more aggressive and territorial as it continues to exert its power internally and externally, but it will come at a cost.

“Russia will also seek to reintegrate the former Soviet republics into some coherent entity in order to delay its demographic problems, expand its market and above all reabsorb some territorial buffers,” the forecast predicts.

Such action will make its neighbours anxious both in terms of national security and rapidly shifting economic policies.

Rising military cost, declining oil prices and internal issues will all weaken Russia further with its inability to control the federation creating a vacuum.

While Russia won’t split up as such, Moscow’s influence will weaken significantly, which in turn will create a raft of semi autonomous regions.

“We expect Moscow’s authority to weaken substantially, leading to the formal and informal fragmentation of Russia,” the report warns.

“It is unlikely that the Russian Federation will survive in its current form.”

Countries including Poland, Hungary and Romania will also look to recover territory gained by Russia throughout various times in history.

Turkey will emerge as a powerful influence in the next decade.

4. TURKEY WILL EMERGE POWERFUL

The world is already beginning to see a decline in the nation states created by Europe across North Africa and the Middle East with the US unable to solve the endless internal fighting taking place.

Turkey, whose southern border is close to the troubles, will be slowly drawn into the fighting, Stratfor predict, emerging as both a major regional power and an increasing competitor with Iran.

America will look to shore up support with Turkey, which will become a major force across Asia and the Middle East.

“Whatever its reluctance, Turkey cannot withstand years of chaos across its border, and there will be no other country to carry the burden,” Stratfor reveal.

China faces further economic slowdown, according to future predictions.

5. CHINA WILL SLOW DOWN

According to Stratfor, China is at the end of its high-growth/low wage cycle and has entered a new stage known as “the new normal” which will in turn be followed by a period of much slower growth.

“China will continue to be a major economic force but will not be the dynamic engine of global growth it once was,” the report reads.

Instead a new group of 16 nations which includes most of South-East Asia, East Africa and part of Latin America will emerge in China’s place as an economic powerhouse.

According to the report, China will also lose some of its military might as Japan becomes more dominant in the region.

6. AMERICA WILL ‘DISENGAGE’

While it remains a major economic, political and military power, the United States will “be less engaged than the past”, with the powerhouse learning some vital lessons from history.

This in turn will lead it to be more cautious in matters concerning economic and military matters, having “learned the limits of power in trying to pacify hostile countries”.

Instead the US will be more selective with what issues it becomes involved with.

“It will face major strategic threats with proportional power, but it will not serve the role of first responded as it has in recent years,” Stratfor predict.

7. GERMANY WILL LOSE POWER

While the European powerhouse has emerged fairly strong from the financial crisis, it remains very vulnerable with exports making up half of its GDP, 50 per cent of which flows to other EU nations.

However, the world’s fourth largest economic power is hostage to the economic wellbeing and competitive environment in which it operates, Stratfor said.

Protectionist policies will affect its exports leading to an extended economic decline which will reduce Germany’s influence within the next decade.

8. POLAND WILL INCREASE POWER

According to Stratfor, Poland has had impressive economic and political growth in recent years.

The eastern European state will not only continue such growth but will emerge as a key player as it diversifies its trade relationships.

Such a move will be bad news for Russia as Poland is predicted to come out as the leader of an anti-Russia coalition that would, significantly, include Romania during the first half of this decade, Stratfor state.

“In the second half of the decade, this alliance will play a major role in reshaping the Russian borderlands and retrieving lost territories,” it warns.

This will lead to a powerful alliance with America, which will look to shore up relationships with a stabilising force.

9. MIDDLE EAST WILL START TO BREAK DOWN

The nation states created by the west will collapse, Stratfor predict, with some countries devolving into factions at war with each other.

But the report highlights while a power vacuum will continue to exist, jihadist groups will be contained by internal divisions.

The United States will step further away from its influence in the region, and Turkey, which has so far remained out of most of the conflict, will be forced to step in and act as the region’s stabilising force.