Applying chaos theory to population dynamics and migration

I'm not saying it's chaotic so "we should give up."

I'm saying it's chaotic, so we should use this knowledge to make predictions about the system properly. When I evaluate people's claims on history, I can intuitively tell that they're being biased and that their evaluation of the system is logically flawed.

For example, statements like "migration only moved in one direction" is flawed logic within the context of chaotic systems.

I'm not saying that no one can make any statements about history. I want people to make the RIGHT statements. Statements that make sense within the context of an OBJECTIVE theoretical model. Not biased interpretations based on cherry-picked historical sources.

Instead, I just hear nationalistic garbage with people trying to "prove" that their biased beliefs are right.

The key is to use history as reference points to guide an understanding how the chaotic system evolved as a whole. When you start making linear statements to describe the non-linear whole, you're already getting further from the truth. People are making this logical fallacy way too much.

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Too many members of this forum are making biased historical and anthropological claims thinking that their cherry-picked "sources" are omnipotent or something.. lol

I'm trying to teach people how to use an objective theoretical framework to cut through the bullshit. Unfortunately, some people are just incapable of thinking in theoretical terms and would rather regurgitate BS they read online.

People who can't grasp complexity and are arrogant enough to think that their small subjective perspective is capable describing absolute truths in history and anthropology... lol

Originally Posted by Doraemon

Migration is in every direction, but in a specific context, it can be in only one direction. For example, in the case of VN, it's Viet people in the north who migrated south and assimilated the indigenous populations of the south, it was never the opposite. If you make a claim that, within historical time frame, a migration in opposite direction occurred, then you need specific evidence to prove it. You can't just throw the "chaos" theory out there and expect everyone to accept your claim, then when they don't, you rub the nationalist label onto their face.

Chaos theory shows that patterns are unpredictable.

This pattern below is a result of a chaotic system


Click here to view the original image of 1280x720px.


Unpredictable, but the lines left behind gives us an idea of the actual movement of the lines. The "lines" can be taken as "evidence".
Thus we can determine migration pattern through point A to point B based on such lines.
You might argue that there are many lines missing between specific points. Like the one where point B travelled in the direction of point A.
As such, using this model strongly implicates the possibilities of human migration are endless; people will make up lots of bullshit since "anything is possible". We do not write things that could have happened based on theory of unpredictable patterns, we write things that most likely happened based on evidence. The last thing we want are conjurers fabricating history.

The patterns are unpredictable when you try to make a LINEAR PREDICTION. But we can clearly make predictions about the system as a whole. Correct? You can see how chaos results in movement that becomes evenly distributed and dispersed in all directions, right? You can SEE that right?

When you guys make your oversimplified historical claims based on the biased interpretation of historical sources, you're essentially describing a chaotic system in ONE LINE. But you can see that if we only described one or two paths, we would be failing to describe the system accurately, RIGHT?



What's the history of this pendulum? Yes, the pendulum at one point moved left to right, we can record that in the history books, but at the same time, it's very hard to describe it's movement in general because the movement is chaotic. A better prediction is to say that it's movement will eventually become evenly distributed across a whole system of potential paths.

I've already explained that you should use chaos theory to evaluate historical sources properly. CHAOS THEORY HELPS YOU UNDERSTAND THE CONTEXT OF HISTORICAL EVENTS. Since those who write historical sources are not guaranteed to be omnipotent or unbiased, we need a theoretical framework to evaluate the truth value of the historical sources themselves. We can't just assume all historical sources are omnipotent fact just because some dude with a phd says so.

Where does one apply chaos theory?

1. Weather systems.
2. Economics.
3. Ecosystems.
4. Population dynamics.
5. Geology.
6. Finance.
7. Sociology.
8. Anthropology.

I am interested in learning about history, but I'm also seeking to correct those who make absurd claims about human systems, including oversimplified and biased claims about history, culture, anthropology, and genetics.

I approach history with an open mind and curiosity for the "facts", but I am also CAPABLE of evaluating "historical facts" properly, in that I understand the limitations of their truth value.

I think the key point I'm trying to make is I don't need to provide my own cherry-picked "sources" to know when someone's interpretation is wrong. I can easily tell if someone is making nationalistic or absurd claims simply through the application of chaos theory as theoretical framework.

If your historical claims CONTRADICT chaos theory, there's a high probability you're not understanding history correctly.

I'm trying to teach people how to use this framework, but I feel like I'm teaching math to a dog.

Example 1:

Absurd historical claim: "Migrations only moved one direction."

Behavior of chaotic system: "Migrations move in all directions."

CONTRADICTION.

Example 2:

Absurd historical claim: "Neighbors are unrelated to one another."

Behavior of chaotic system: "Neighbors mix on a geographic cline."

CONTRADICTION.

Example 3:

Absurd historical claim: "Chinese were the same ethnicity over thousands of years."

Behavior of chaotic system: "Huge statistical variation mixing together and constantly changing over thousands of years."

CONTRADICTION.

Example 4:

Absurd historical claim: "China was one continuously civilization over thousands of years."

Behavior of chaotic system: "Empires reach equilibrium and then collapse leading to structural changes unrecognizable to the previous paradigm."

CONTRADICTION.

Example 5:

Absurd historical claim: "Chinese was the cultural center of East Asia because Chinese are inherently superior."

Behavior of chaotic system: "Intersection points in the flow of people, commerce, and culture become centralized innovators and distributors of culture.

CONTRADICTION.

Example 6:

Absurd historical claim: "Empires controlled everything within their borders because it's colored that way on a map."

Behavior of chaotic system: "Empires exerted political power indirectly through alliances. You can't directly control a chaotic system... lol. Why does communism fail and capitalism work?"

CONTRADICTION.

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You see how I can take a look at historical claims and use chaos theory to determine their truth value? People are treating their interpretation of cherry-picked historical sources like religious fanatics with their bible.

But when you analyze such historical claims using the scrutiny of an objective theoretical framework, they don't hold up. I can tell if people are being biased and nationalistic with their claims and it's annoying as shit.

Originally Posted by MrC

I think chaos theory can help explain or bridge in the unknown parts when reconstructing history but it has to be corrected as new data comes in. My own college math went no higher than Abstract Analyses but I'm sure Chaos theory must have ways to weight the outcome given known events.

For example, in the migration to Japan, at one point a huge volcanic eruption occurred. This is a well documented event that can be confirmed from multiple fields of research. During this time, there was a mass exodus from Japan. I'm sure Chaos theory takes into consideration powerful events like this when predicting possible outcomes.