What will life be like after the coronavirus pandemic ends?

As 2020 blessedly clangs to a close, it’s tempting to wonder where we’re headed once the pandemic is history. In the spirit of year-end curiosity about COVID-19’s possible long-term effects, Science News posed this question to a few scholars: What major social changes do you see coming after the pandemic? As baseball’s Yogi Berra once said, “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” The following forecasts, edited for length and clarity, aren’t written in stone and aren’t meant to be. But they raise some provocative possibilities.

John Barry

Historian, Tulane University
Author, The Great Influenza: The Story of the Deadliest Pandemic in History

What happens in the next six months will have a disproportionate impact on what happens in the more distant future. If vaccines are very effective, if immunity lasts for a few years, if therapeutic drugs come online that are highly effective and if we have broad usage of cheap rapid antigen tests that can assure people that others around them are safe, I would foresee relatively few changes other than the really obvious ones, such as more work from home, teledoc services and a decimation of small business.

If the virus remains a threat, changes could be pretty profound, all stemming from a de-densifying, if there is such a word, of life in general. This trend would affect where and how people live and work, the housing market, commercial real estate practices and the interior design of buildings. There would be more cars and less mass transit.