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[Sticky] Russia-Ukraine War Geopolitical Analysis

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josh avatar
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The British Ministry of Defense has reportedly seen indications that Russian President Putin is preparing a Statement for May 9th during the Victory Parade in Moscow, which its expected a General Mobilization and a Declaration of War against Ukraine will be declared.




Rehearsal for the May 9th Parade in St. Petersburg

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Source: Putin to have cancer surgery, will "hand over power ... while he is incapacitated"




The article linked to below says that "Hardliner Nikolai Patrushev (left) will reportedly take control of the war in Ukraine while Putin is under the knife to treat abdominal cancer". This information "appeared on popular Telegram channel General SVR, which says it has a well-placed source in the Kremlin." The article also says that "Putin ... reportedly has Parkinson's, cancer and schizophrenic symptoms". The photo was posted within the article.

Full story in the Daily Mail

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 "Fire Engulfs Key Russian Oil Depots" that Feed the Druzhba Pipeline


The "Druzhba pipeline runs through Ukraine and Belarus. Map location of the Yuzhne port is approximate." The image and its caption were both posted within the Wiki article about the pipeline.

 

A fire has erupted at a key Russian oil depot and a second military site near the Ukrainian border, Russian authorities said early Monday.

Social media accounts based in Russia’s Bryansk region shared footage of what they described as explosions and a fire at the Transneft-Druzhba depot. The state-run oil export company’s subsidiary runs one of the world’s longest oil pipelines from Russia to Europe.

Built in the 1960s to supply the Soviet Union’s Eastern European allies, the Druzhba pipeline passes through Ukraine and Belarus to deliver oil to Poland, Slovakia, the Czech Republic and the Baltics.

Full story at The Moscow Times

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The power of American intelligence.

US has top tier cyber technology (real time satelite images, phone calls tapping, emails hacking, etc...) and insiders to reveal the locations of the commanders and even the details of their plans. US is simply the most prepared nation for a cyber warfare.

In deglobalized world America will go back to being a provider of weapons and intel instead of pouring troops into a conflict zone. Putin made a mistake in invading Ukraine since America and Europe are helping Ukraine to "not lose" the war, not "winning" against Russia. America and Europe intend to turn Ukrainian population into a guerilla army, supply them not with tanks and fighter jets but with artillery, drones, anti tank & anti aircraft weaponaries to prolong the war in Ukraine, which would make Russia commit more men & resources.

Like Peter Zeihan predicted, this is gonna be Russia's last war.

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https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-...ainst-ukraine/

United States and G7 Partners Impose Severe Costs for Putin’s War Against Ukraine

 

May 08, 2022
• Statements and Releases

President Biden and G7 Leaders Meet with President Zelenskyy to Continue our Efforts to Support Ukraine and Build on our Unprecedented Sanctions and Export Controls

Today, President Biden and G7 Leaders met with President Zelenskyy of Ukraine to reinforce our shared commitment to strengthen Ukraine’s position on the battlefield and at the negotiating table.

Our unprecedented sanctions are already exacting an immense toll on Russia’s economy and our export controls have strangled Russia’s access to critical technology and the supply chains it needs to sustain its military ambitions. Putin’s war is projected to wipe out the last 15 years of economic gains in Russia. As a result of our export controls, Russia is struggling to replenish its military weapons and equipment. Russia’s two major tank plants – Uralvagonzavod Corporation and Chelyabinsk Tractor Plant – have halted work due to lack of foreign components. Almost 1,000 private sector companies have left Russia, and reports indicate that more than 200,000 Russians, many of whom are highly skilled, have fled the country. All of these costs will compound and intensify over time.

Putin has failed in his initial military objective to dominate Ukraine – but he has succeeded in making Russia a global pariah. Today, the United States, the European Union and G7 committed to ratchet up these costs by collectively taking further measures, consistent with each partner’s respective legal authorities and processes.

Targeting State-Controlled Media Within Russia That Bolster Putin’s War. The United States will sanction three of Russia’s most highly-viewed directly or indirectly state-controlled television stations in Russia – Joint Stock Company Channel One Russia, Television Station Russia-1, and Joint Stock Company NTV Broadcasting Company. All three stations have been among the largest recipients of foreign revenue, which feeds back to the Russian State’s revenue.

Banning Services that Help Finance Putin’s War and Aid Sanctions Evasion. The United States will prohibit U.S. persons from providing accounting, trust and corporate formation, and management consulting services to any person in the Russian Federation. These services are key to Russian companies and elites building wealth, thereby generating revenue for Putin’s war machine, and to trying to hide that wealth and evade sanctions. This action builds on previous prohibitions to restrict the export of goods related to aerospace, marine, electronics, technology, and defense and related materiel sectors of the Russian economy.

Cutting off Imports of Russian Oil and Reducing Dependence on Russian Energy. The United States has already banned the import of Russian oil, gas, and coal. Today, the entire G7 committed to phasing out or banning the import of Russian oil. This will hit hard at the main artery of Putin’s economy and deny him the revenue he needs to fund his war. The G7 also committed to work together to ensure stable global energy supplies, while accelerating our efforts to reduce dependence on fossil fuels.

Impose further export controls and sanctions to degrade Russia’s war efforts. The United States will issue a new rule that imposes additional restrictions on Russia’s industrial sector, including a broad range of inputs and products including wood products, industrial engines, boilers, motors, fans, and ventilation equipment, bulldozers, and many other items with industrial and commercial applications. These new controls will further limit Russia’s access to items and revenue that could support its military capabilities. The United States also sanctioned Limited Liability Company Promtekhnologiya, which produces rifles and other weapons that have been used in military operations in Ukraine; seven shipping companies, which own or operate 69 vessels; and one marine towing company. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission will also suspend general licenses for exports of source material, special nuclear material, byproduct material, and deuterium to Russia.

Impose Sanctions on Russian Elites and their Family Members and Visa Restrictions on Russian and Belarusian Officials Undermining the Sovereignty, Territorial Integrity, or Political Independence of Ukraine. The United States imposed approximately 2,600 visa restrictions on Russian and Belarusian officials in response to their ongoing efforts to undermine the sovereignty, territorial integrity, or political independence of Ukraine. Additionally, the United States issued a new visa restriction policy that applies to Russian Federation military officials and Russia-backed or Russia-installed purported authorities who are believed to have been involved in human rights abuses, violations of international humanitarian law, or public corruption in Ukraine. The United States also sanctioned eight executives from Sberbank– the largest financial institution in Russia and uniquely important to the Russian economy, holding about a third of all bank assets in Russia; twenty-seven executives from Gazprombank – a prominent Russian bank facilitating business by Russia’s Gazprom, one of the largest natural gas exporters in the world; and Moscow Industrial Bank and its ten subsidiaries.

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