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Who would win in a war between India and China? Why?

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ASIANS 4 BLACK LIVES MATTER 黑人的命也是命 avatar
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(@naval)
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Sino-Indian War (2018)

  • No nuclear weapons involved ( no SSBNs, ballistic missiles)
  • No allies involves

Indian Army

1.2 millions active troops

900,000 reserve troops

People Liberation Army Ground Force

1.6 millions active troops

510,000 reserve troops

The last time two countries were involved at war with each other was in 1962. The cause of the war was because India provide asylum to Dalai Lama. China won without using their Air Force and Navies. The war were mostly fought at Aksai Chin. Currently this is the border dispute area between two nations, which mean that two armies might meet each other once more in this area in the future.

At this current moment, India have an advantage in geography, since it’s primary forces are closer to border. Western Part of China is sparsely populated, unlike its eastern provinces. Therefore, Indian Armed Forces would reach Aksai Chin and possibly cross Chinese border. But it is UNLIKELY, since Aksai Chin is very mountainous (4000m+), India wouldn’t able to sustain their force inside enemy territories (same for China) . Both sides would send a large amount of arsenals to the border and defend it.

Tank Forces:

India:

1650 T-90M/S (capable)

124 Arjun Mk2 (capable)

124 Arjun Mk1 (mediocre)

2410 T-72 Ajeya (poor/mediocre)

Total: 4308 tanks

China

224 Type99A2 (excellent)

590 Type 99 (capable)

1150 Type 96A/B (capable)

961 Type 96 (mediocre)

Total: 2925 tanks

*Type 88 and Type 59 not included, since they are use for training now

Both sides have very large tank fleets. Chinese tank fleets overall are considered to be a little bit more modern with the presence of advanced 3rd gen. Type 99A2. India have slight numerical advantages. That wouldn’t make any differences due to the mountainous terrain of Aksai Chin. Artillery might be more crucial component of land war.

Artillery

India:

Guns

100 K9 Thunder, 155mm SPG (excellent)

110 S21 Gvozdika 122mm SPG

80 FV443 Abbot SPG

40 Catapult SPG

1350 105mm towed artillery

1120 130mm towed artillery

500 155mm towed artillery

MLRS

62 BM-30 Smerch, 300mm

54 Pinaka, 214mm

150 BM-21, 122mm

Missiles:

Few Hundreds Brahmos (600km range)

100 Klub ( 300km)


China:

Guns:

300 PLZ-05 155mm SPG (excellent)

460 152/155mm SPG

2100 155mm towed artillery

4100 122/130mm towed artillery

MLRS:

175 300mm MLRS

1700 107/122mm MLRS

Missiles

550 CJ-10 ( 1500km)

100 Klub ( 300km)

Due to the mountainous terrain of Aksai Chin, both sides would mostly fight with foot infantry and in war of attrition like WW1, where both sides would artillery barrages each other with tanks, guns, MLRS and missiles. If this happens, we might have largest artillery trade off in World history. In a long term, China might win, owing to its larger and more potent artillery forces, but it wouldn’t able to cross enemy territories, due to the extremely mountainous terrain. Chinese army would deal with supply issues once crossed the mountain.

War in the Air

Since two nations are separated by the Himalayas and mountainous terrain. Aerial warfare might play a much more significant role in the war than land warfare.

Air Superiority Capability

India:

233 Sukhoi-30MKI (capable)

66 Mig-29UPG (capable)

45 Mig-29K (capable)

51 Mirage 2000I (capable)

12 HAL Tejas (mediocre)

30 Mig-29B (poor)

Total: 437 modern fighters

China:

20 J-20 ( advanced)

24 Su-35 ( excellent)

76 Su-30MKK (capable)

24 J-16 (capable)

276 J-11 (capable)

100 J-10B (capable)

315 J-10 (mediocre)

Total: 835 modern fighters

Overall China have a better air superiority forces than India in terms of technology and number. In an aerial warfare over Sino-Indian borders and possibly Nepal air space, with a much more numerous forces and technologically advanced fighters like Su-35 and J-20, China would most likely to control the sky. Indian air defense would most likely shot down few Chinese aircrafts with modern Akash SAM or S-300 SAM. But the quantity of Indian air defense systems is too small to inflict heavy losses on Chinese Air Force.

War at Sea:

This would be the largest theater in Sino-Indian War. Since two navies possess a strong blue water capabilities, allowing them to operates far from their home countries. It is most likely that Indian would be on Defense and China would be on Offense.

Indian Naval Forces:

1 Vikradimatiya-class carrier (45,000 tons, 26 Mig-29K)

1 Visakhapatnam class destroyer, 2010s tech

3 Kolkata class destroyer, 2000s tech

3 Delhi class destroyer, 1990s tech

5 Rajput class destroyer, 1980s tech

3 Shivalik class frigate, 2000s tech

6 Talwar class frigate, 2000s tech

3 Brahmaputra class frigate, 1990s tech

3 Kamorta class frigate, 2000s tech

2 Godavari class frigate, 1980s tech

1 Chakra class nuclear powered submarine (12,000 tons), 1990s tech

9 Kilo class submarine, 1980s tech

4 Shishumar class submarine, 1990s tech

1 Kalvari class submarine, 2000s tech

People Liberation Army Navy:

1 Admiral Kuznetsov class carrier (55,000 tons, 26 J-15)

1 Type 055 class destroyer, 2010s tech

14 Type 052 B/C/D class destroyer, 2000s tech

4 Sovremenny class destroyer, 1980s tech

2 Type 051C class destroyer, 2000s tech

1 Type 051 class destroyer, 1970s tech

27 Type 054 class frigate, 2000s tech

10 Type 053 class frigate, 1980s tech

13 Type 053 class frigate, 1970s tech

2 Type 093 nuclear powered submarines (7000 tons), 1980s tech

4 Type 091 nuclear powered submarines (5500 tons), 1970s tech

28 Type 039 class submarine, 1990s tech

12 Improved Kilo class submarine, 1990s tech

16 Type 035 class submarine, 1970s tech

Overall in terms of technology, both India and China seems to be equal. But in terms of number, China once again defeat India in terms of QUANTITY. PLAN is the second largest navy in the world behind the US Navy only.

Battle of Malacca Strait:

In a war two Navies will face each other in the straight of Malacca, a gate connecting Indian and Pacific Ocean. In this case geography will favor India. Since India is closer, Indian Navy will reach there first and ambush the incoming Chinese. Knowing that the enemy outnumber them in the open sea, India would use the straight to avoid Chinese radar and missiles. When Chinese Navy cross the strait, they will be ambushed by Indian ships and worn down one by one by Indian Brahmos missiles and submarines.

However if Indian navy try to cross the Malacca strait, they will suffer the same consequence, if not worse.

Overall, the war in the land and sea favor no sides in this war. However China have a much more robust Air Force, which would give them some tactical advantages in the war. FINAL VERDICT: CHINESE MARGINAL VICTORY

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ASIANS 4 BLACK LIVES MATTER 黑人的命也是命 avatar
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If the escalation leads to a war then two main cases would arise -

1.} If it stays strictly a two side war i.e India and China no one is going to come out victorious and both countries would just end up sabotaging each other in many ways, some territories would be won and lost by both the sides, a lot of casualties would occur on both the sides. And I know many in India and almost everyone in China would want to falsify this claim by stating the 1962 war but I don't think the Chinese would be that naive in estimating the Indian military might.

2.} The other case would be that if the Chinese machinery decides to open multiple fronts of war against India by instigating its proxies i.e Pakistan and as it seems by Nepal's present misadventures Nepal so this war in an instant would turn into a World War, WW3. Now some sceptics who have all their scepticism just turned against India would say no one would want to side with India in this war. So for them I would like them to recall the statement that Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu gave when asked would Israel support India in a war effort he without any hesitation said India is like a second home for Jewish people and would support India at any and all cost no matter what. So the supporter count of India goes to 1, then again the simple involvement of China in a war against India is what US would want and it would be just about time when India gives a call for assistance those American M-hawk and Apache Helicopters would be rounding up Chinese forces in the Himalayas and those Aircraft Carriers would round up the South China sea. As for Russia it would want to help Chinese side due to involvement of US on other side but again the sheer history of Russia with India and its own suspicion of Chinese expansionuism would make Russia to attain a neutral opinion about this war( at least by my assessment of Mr. Putin as of now). As for European Union and NATO they follow the US but with the involvement of India against China would give them extra impetus to join the war effort from India's side .

So now you see if the war turns to a multi nation effort it would only yield destruction for China as of now the majority of the world forces are against the Chinese Regime and its bullying. So if China thinks that the criminal mismanagement it has shown in handling of Corona Wuhan Virus can be hidden by it by opening a war front against India it would be the greatest mistake it can make because I can't say surely about other damages but the geographical damages would be severe- Tibet, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Inner Mongolia the list would be long.

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ASIANS 4 BLACK LIVES MATTER 黑人的命也是命 avatar
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Depends on what the war is for.

If China attacks India to capture Arunachal Pradesh, India can mobilise troops in the region and counter China easily in that region. The terrain favours India much more than China and India has been very vigilant in the region.

If the war is to conquer the capitals of the two nations, that’ll be a stalemate.

I can copy paste all the military stats in which China is far ahead of India. But there is a reason why India China have never been at war except in 1962 in the long history i.e. Himalayas. Its so difficult terrain for movement of troops and weapons that neither nation can cross it easily.

China ranks #3 in Global Fire Power index while India ranks #4. It is enough to say that neither of the two nations have weak military and are easily capable of defending their homeland. Both nations are nuclear powered. Both nations can now attack every corner of each other with ICBMs. Both nations have equal number of aircraft carriers. China does dominate in the airforce category but that’s just not enough to defeat India. India too has measures for counter-attack.

Now coming to the question, can India win against China? No

To conquer China, India needs to capture Beijing which is far away from Indian territory. Indian army will need to travel through the uninhabitable region of Tibet even if they manage to cross the international border and geographical border of Himalayas.

China dominates in submarines and that makes it very difficult for Indian navy to enter the East China Sea or South China Sea from where it can target the main cities of China. Indian navy dominates the Indian ocean and the Bay of Bengal which makes it very tough for Chinese navy to attack Indian coastal cities.

Have a look at the population density of the two nations and see where India needs to hit hard to defeat China.

Its next to impossible for even USA navy to defeat China in the region so you can cut some slack for India.

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ASIANS 4 BLACK LIVES MATTER 黑人的命也是命 avatar
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Before I answer this question, I would like to mention that I am an Indian.

Let's get into this hypothetical situation, assume that China and India declare war against each other.

  1. Ground Invasion - The most important battle will be fought on the ground and it will be on India - China border. I am attaching a map below

In order to win any battle by the army, they must have very strong supply lines. As you can see in the above map, more than 95% of the Indian border with China is not actually with China, but with the disputed territory of Tibet. All supplies either need to come through air or roads. If you are bringing it via road then I doubt that Tibetians will turn hostile to seek the opportunity to get upper hand over Chinese armed forces to seek independence. Now, on the other hand, India has no such problems for supplies. Apart from that, I would also like to mention that India gave permission to run the government in exile for Tibet in Dharamsala. India will definitely convince Tibetian population to harass the Chinese army.

The second thing is the 1962 experience. As you know that in 1962 India lost to China, but at the same time, China also knows what happened in the Battle Of Rezang La(120 men defended this post till the last man alive, and ended up killing 1300 Chinese troops. Despite they were poorly equipped).

2. Air Invasion - When it comes to air forces, this is a very tricky business. Both China and India are well-industralised countries, China is more I would say. Both have developed meaningful weapons to achieve their strategic goals. For example, India has invested a good amount of money and time into missiles. Reason being china will have to protect lots of its infrastructure. But at the same time, China has acquired S-400 SAM(Surface To Air Missile) which is a top-notch defense system available in the world as of now. I personally don't believe that both countries will risk their expensive assets/equipment. Therefore, this war will be fought with limited resources as far as air invasion is concerned. And it will be the same case for a naval battle.

Now, many people will argue about numbers superiority of defense equipment on paper, but that is less relevant in today's world. Let's take the example of Yom Kippur war in Sinai peninsula between Egypt and Isreal. Egyptians used Sagger anti-tank guided missile which knocked down more than 800 tanks and combat vehicles. Below is the photo attached,

All I want to say is that number superiority is definitely plus point but that is on paper, the reality could be different.

So, the final verdict is that India has more chance of winning a conventional war against China. China and India are both reasonable countries so nuclear weapons won't be coming into the picture.

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Komodo Commander
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There is no India vs China. This isn't a one on one boxing match. India will have allies while China has very few. 

 

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James avatar
(@james)
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@marneil

China has zero to none allies. the definition of allies means fighting together in the war. 

Pakistan and China' relationship is more of a common enemy alliance.

it's not the same as Uk/Us alliance where two countries will fight to the death for each other.  

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Komodo Commander
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@james

India can cut off cargo ships in the ocean, while China's only choice to ally with Pakistan to get access to Pakistani seaport. 

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Germinator
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Posts: 763

@marneil

 what if the other nations were busy with something else. 

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