Sino-Indian War (2018)
- No nuclear weapons involved ( no SSBNs, ballistic missiles)
- No allies involves
Indian Army
1.2 millions active troops
900,000 reserve troops
People Liberation Army Ground Force
1.6 millions active troops
510,000 reserve troops
The last time two countries were involved at war with each other was in 1962. The cause of the war was because India provide asylum to Dalai Lama. China won without using their Air Force and Navies. The war were mostly fought at Aksai Chin. Currently this is the border dispute area between two nations, which mean that two armies might meet each other once more in this area in the future.
At this current moment, India have an advantage in geography, since it’s primary forces are closer to border. Western Part of China is sparsely populated, unlike its eastern provinces. Therefore, Indian Armed Forces would reach Aksai Chin and possibly cross Chinese border. But it is UNLIKELY, since Aksai Chin is very mountainous (4000m+), India wouldn’t able to sustain their force inside enemy territories (same for China) . Both sides would send a large amount of arsenals to the border and defend it.
Tank Forces:
India:
1650 T-90M/S (capable)
124 Arjun Mk2 (capable)
124 Arjun Mk1 (mediocre)
2410 T-72 Ajeya (poor/mediocre)
Total: 4308 tanks
China
224 Type99A2 (excellent)
590 Type 99 (capable)
1150 Type 96A/B (capable)
961 Type 96 (mediocre)
Total: 2925 tanks
*Type 88 and Type 59 not included, since they are use for training now
Both sides have very large tank fleets. Chinese tank fleets overall are considered to be a little bit more modern with the presence of advanced 3rd gen. Type 99A2. India have slight numerical advantages. That wouldn’t make any differences due to the mountainous terrain of Aksai Chin. Artillery might be more crucial component of land war.
Artillery
India:
Guns
100 K9 Thunder, 155mm SPG (excellent)
110 S21 Gvozdika 122mm SPG
80 FV443 Abbot SPG
40 Catapult SPG
1350 105mm towed artillery
1120 130mm towed artillery
500 155mm towed artillery
MLRS
62 BM-30 Smerch, 300mm
54 Pinaka, 214mm
150 BM-21, 122mm
Missiles:
Few Hundreds Brahmos (600km range)
100 Klub ( 300km)
China:
Guns:
300 PLZ-05 155mm SPG (excellent)
460 152/155mm SPG
2100 155mm towed artillery
4100 122/130mm towed artillery
MLRS:
175 300mm MLRS
1700 107/122mm MLRS
Missiles
550 CJ-10 ( 1500km)
100 Klub ( 300km)
Due to the mountainous terrain of Aksai Chin, both sides would mostly fight with foot infantry and in war of attrition like WW1, where both sides would artillery barrages each other with tanks, guns, MLRS and missiles. If this happens, we might have largest artillery trade off in World history. In a long term, China might win, owing to its larger and more potent artillery forces, but it wouldn’t able to cross enemy territories, due to the extremely mountainous terrain. Chinese army would deal with supply issues once crossed the mountain.
War in the Air
Since two nations are separated by the Himalayas and mountainous terrain. Aerial warfare might play a much more significant role in the war than land warfare.
Air Superiority Capability
India:
233 Sukhoi-30MKI (capable)
66 Mig-29UPG (capable)
45 Mig-29K (capable)
51 Mirage 2000I (capable)
12 HAL Tejas (mediocre)
30 Mig-29B (poor)
Total: 437 modern fighters
China:
20 J-20 ( advanced)
24 Su-35 ( excellent)
76 Su-30MKK (capable)
24 J-16 (capable)
276 J-11 (capable)
100 J-10B (capable)
315 J-10 (mediocre)
Total: 835 modern fighters
Overall China have a better air superiority forces than India in terms of technology and number. In an aerial warfare over Sino-Indian borders and possibly Nepal air space, with a much more numerous forces and technologically advanced fighters like Su-35 and J-20, China would most likely to control the sky. Indian air defense would most likely shot down few Chinese aircrafts with modern Akash SAM or S-300 SAM. But the quantity of Indian air defense systems is too small to inflict heavy losses on Chinese Air Force.
War at Sea:
This would be the largest theater in Sino-Indian War. Since two navies possess a strong blue water capabilities, allowing them to operates far from their home countries. It is most likely that Indian would be on Defense and China would be on Offense.
Indian Naval Forces:
1 Vikradimatiya-class carrier (45,000 tons, 26 Mig-29K)
1 Visakhapatnam class destroyer, 2010s tech
3 Kolkata class destroyer, 2000s tech
3 Delhi class destroyer, 1990s tech
5 Rajput class destroyer, 1980s tech
3 Shivalik class frigate, 2000s tech
6 Talwar class frigate, 2000s tech
3 Brahmaputra class frigate, 1990s tech
3 Kamorta class frigate, 2000s tech
2 Godavari class frigate, 1980s tech
1 Chakra class nuclear powered submarine (12,000 tons), 1990s tech
9 Kilo class submarine, 1980s tech
4 Shishumar class submarine, 1990s tech
1 Kalvari class submarine, 2000s tech
People Liberation Army Navy:
1 Admiral Kuznetsov class carrier (55,000 tons, 26 J-15)
1 Type 055 class destroyer, 2010s tech
14 Type 052 B/C/D class destroyer, 2000s tech
4 Sovremenny class destroyer, 1980s tech
2 Type 051C class destroyer, 2000s tech
1 Type 051 class destroyer, 1970s tech
27 Type 054 class frigate, 2000s tech
10 Type 053 class frigate, 1980s tech
13 Type 053 class frigate, 1970s tech
2 Type 093 nuclear powered submarines (7000 tons), 1980s tech
4 Type 091 nuclear powered submarines (5500 tons), 1970s tech
28 Type 039 class submarine, 1990s tech
12 Improved Kilo class submarine, 1990s tech
16 Type 035 class submarine, 1970s tech
Overall in terms of technology, both India and China seems to be equal. But in terms of number, China once again defeat India in terms of QUANTITY. PLAN is the second largest navy in the world behind the US Navy only.
Battle of Malacca Strait:
In a war two Navies will face each other in the straight of Malacca, a gate connecting Indian and Pacific Ocean. In this case geography will favor India. Since India is closer, Indian Navy will reach there first and ambush the incoming Chinese. Knowing that the enemy outnumber them in the open sea, India would use the straight to avoid Chinese radar and missiles. When Chinese Navy cross the strait, they will be ambushed by Indian ships and worn down one by one by Indian Brahmos missiles and submarines.
However if Indian navy try to cross the Malacca strait, they will suffer the same consequence, if not worse.
Overall, the war in the land and sea favor no sides in this war. However China have a much more robust Air Force, which would give them some tactical advantages in the war. FINAL VERDICT: CHINESE MARGINAL VICTORY