[Sticky] Russia-Ukraine War Geopolitical Analysis

Sweden says it received U.S. security assurances if it hands in NATO application
May 5, 2022
Reuters

STOCKHOLM, May 4 (Reuters) - Sweden has received assurances from the United States that it would receive support during the period a potential application to join NATO is processed by the 30 nations in the alliance, Foreign Minister Ann Linde said in Washington on Wednesday.

Sweden and neighbour Finland stayed out of NATO during the Cold War, but Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014 and its invasion of Ukraine have led the countries to rethink their security policies, with NATO membership looking increasingly likely.

Both countries are concerned they would be vulnerable during an application process, which could take up to a year to be approved by all NATO's members.

"Naturally, I'm not going to go into any details, but I feel very sure that now we have an American assurance," Linde told Swedish TV from Washington after meeting U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken.

"However, not concrete security guarantees, those you can only get if you are a full member of NATO," she added.

Linde declined to say what assurances she had received from Blinken.

"They would mean that Russia can be clear that if they direct any kind of negative activities against Sweden, which they have threatened, it would not be something that the U.S. would just allow to happen ... without a response," she said.

A U.S. State Department statement issued after the meeting said Blinken had reaffirmed Washington's commitment to NATO's policy of welcoming new members, but it made no mention of security assurances.

Sweden's defence minister said last month that an application could trigger a number of responses from Russia, including cyber attacks and hybrid measures - such as propaganda campaigns - to undermine Sweden's security.

Moscow has warned it could deploy nuclear weapons and hypersonic missiles in the European exclave of Kaliningrad if Sweden and Finland become NATO members. read more

Linde, who will now travel to Canada to discuss security matters with its government, said the United States was strongly supportive of Swedish and Finnish membership in NATO, which would increase stability in the Baltic and Arctic regions.

Both Sweden and Finland are expected to make a decision about whether to apply to join NATO this month.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...on-2022-05-04/

Correction to Nuclear Threat Made on Russian Television

In the video above, the Russian state TV presenter says that it would take one RS-28 Sarmat missile to destroy Britain / England.

The island of Great Britain, which includes England, Scotland and Wales, has an area of 209,331 km².

In 1961, the Soviet Union tested a nuclear weapon named the Tsar Bomba, which had an explosive yield of 50-58 megatons. The radius of total destruction, which is greater than just the radius of the fireball itself, was 35 km.

The area of total destruction can be calculated with the formula for the area of a circle, which is A = π x r².

If we approximate π with the number 3.14159, then the approximate area of total destruction = (3.14159) X (35 km)² = 3,848 km².

Assuming that each Sarmat was armed with one Tsar Bomba, then the approximate number of missiles it would take to literally destroy all of Great Britain = (area of Great Britain) ÷ (area of total destruction for one Sarmat)
= (209,331 km²) ÷ (3,848 km²)
= 55 missiles

However, the weight of the Tsar Bomba was 60,000 lbs = 30 tons, while the payload capacity of the Sarmat is only 10 tons. If each Sarmat was loaded with the most powerful bomb it could actually carry, then an attack on the UK might well require even more than 55 missiles.

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Furthermore, according to the Wiki article about the Sarmat, it “… made its first test flight on 20 April 2022, and the Russian government expects the missile to enter service later in the year."

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