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Military [Solved] Nuclear War fallout studies

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As many as 5 billion people worldwide – 75% of the global population – would die from famine and hunger after a nuclear war between the U.S. and Russia, a new study says. 

The detonation of a nuclear weapon would cause massive fires and inject soot into the atmosphere, blocking sunlight from reaching the surface and limiting food production, leading to the deaths, the study said.

“A large percent of the people will be starving,” Lili Xia, a climate scientist at Rutgers University, who led the research, told Nature.com. “It’s really bad.”

Building on past research, scientists worked to calculate how much sun-blocking soot would enter the atmosphere from firestorms that would be ignited by the detonation of nuclear weapons.

"The reduced light, global cooling and likely trade restrictions after nuclear wars would be a global catastrophe for food security," the study said.

In early May, Russian state TV broadcast simulations of nuclear attacks on the United Kingdom that seemed to demonstrate how easily Russia could annihilate that nation. As the world follows the Russian invasion into Ukraine and the horrors of war, menacing rhetoric from President Vladimir Putin continues to escalate - most recently as Sweden and […]

 

'We must prevent a nuclear war'

“The data tells us one thing: We must prevent a nuclear war from ever happening,” said Alan Robock, a professor of climate science at Rutgers University and co-author of the study.

Any nuclear weapon detonation that produces more than 5 teragrams (5 trillion grams) of soot is predicted to likely cause mass food shortages in almost all countries, the study said.

"In the extreme scenario the death toll will be the combined population of the United States, Europe, Russian Federation and allies and much more," Deepak K. Ray told Newsweek magazine.

First-of-its-kind research

The research is the first of its kind, according to the study authors.

"No one has done this calculation before," Robock told Health Day News. "No one has tried to calculate the numbers of people who would die."

The study authors estimate that famine-induced deaths arising from a nuclear war between India and Pakistan could be in the region of 2.5 billion in the two years following the outbreak of war; for a nuclear conflict between the U.S. and Russia, famine-related deaths could reach 5 billion.

Nuclear war might seem less of a threat than it did during the Cold War, according to Nature.com, but there are still nine countries with more than 12,000 nuclear warheads among them.

“If nuclear weapons exist, they can be used, and the world has come close to nuclear war several times,” Robock said. “Banning nuclear weapons is the only long-term solution."

Nuclear tensions between the U.S. and Russia have only escalated in recent months because of the ongoing Russian-Ukraine war. The threat of nuclear war seems especially relevant today as Russia’s war against Ukraine has disrupted global food supplies, according to the journa

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2022/08/15/billions-dead-nuclear-war-us-russia/10328429002/

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Pakistan and India nuclear simulation 

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Fallout is determined by four factors:

  1. The height of the detonation. Fallout is created when irradiated dust and debris from the ground is sucked up by the mushroom cloud and deposited further away by the wind. The higher the detonation, the less debris will be sucked up.
  2. The yield of the weapon. The greater the yield, the more debris will be sucked up. The amount of debris sucked up is a combination of yield and height.
  3. The design of the weapon. The cleaner the design, the less radiation to irradiate debris, to begin with. In the old days, some weapons wer designed to be “dirty” or “salted” meaning they were designed to create more radiation.
  4. The wind pattern. Fallout falls back to earth between 30 minutes and 1 week after a detonation, depending on the particle size of the debris sucked up. The heavier the particles, the sooner they fall back. The more wind there is, the larger the fallout pattern but the lower the radiation level as the fallout is spread out over a larger area.

This being said, in the first 24 hours, the contaminated areas will have doses of 10 Sv (1,000 RAD) or more which is 100% (assuming no specialized medical treatment is immediately available of course).

The radiation levels steadily decline You can roughly use the 7–10 rule. This means that after a time period is multiplied by 7, the radiation decreased by a factor of 10.

So, let’s say we have a 1,000 RAD contaminated area. Seven hours later, the dose is down to 100 RADs. 49 hours later (let’s say 2 days), the dose is down to 10 RADs, etc.

A lethal dose is about 600 RADs without treatment. Now, radiation accumulates and when people mention RAD (or SIIevert or Gray), they usually mean PER HOUR.

That being said, generally speaking, fallout will be at safe levels after two weeks

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Fallout comes down to a number of important factors which all will determine the extent of the affected area.

  • Size of the warhead used. US and Russian Nuclear warheads average out St about 500 kilotons. Both sides have some larger and many thst are smaller, but in terms of strategic weapons, they average around 500.
  • How the weapon is detonated. Nuclear weapons have three modes of detonation. Airburst. Surface burst and sub-surface burst. Sub-surface bursts are generally not used anymore except for very specific targets. Airbursts are just that. A weapon that is detonated from 1500ft or above. In an airburst, the actual irradiated fireball doesn't touch the ground which I will discuss in a minute. Airbursts are used to destroy “area targets”. Targets like large above ground military installations and cities. They are detonated in the air because air detonations maximize the blast effects of a particular weapon.
  • Finally you have a surface burst. This is a detonstion of a warhead at or near groundlevel. This is where fallout comes into play. Surface burst weapons focus their energy on a smaller area which make them usefull for targeting underground bunkers or command centers such as NORAD. Now,because they are set off so close to the ground, these types of detonations will suck up debris, dirt and soot into the actual irradiated fireball itself.

That debris now falls back to Earth as “fallout". Airbursts on all actuality, cause little fallout because that debris never reaches the fireball and thus never becomes irradiated.

So, what differentiates a target that is hit by an air or ground burst? For the most part, the only ground burst areas in the US are mainly the ICBM silos in North Dakota, Wyoming and Montana..Some specific ports and airbases may also be hit by ground burst weapons, but the remaining majority would be air burst attacks.

Ground burst weapons not only cause immediate radiation effects, but depending on where a person is located in the US,thzt same fallout will become caught in the jetstream and in turn,effect a much larger area.

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James avatar
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If Austronesians were to survive. We will need to build our own version of Atlantis 

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josh avatar
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@james why don't you lead lol

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Elgin Productions
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@james The Bajau Laut are a Southeast Asian people that have lived for centuries in the seas around Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Philippines.

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That's like 80% of the human population. 

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