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[Sticky] Russia-Ukraine War Geopolitical Analysis

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Komodo Commander
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Russian General Announces Plan to Invade Moldova after Ukraine

Arjun Singh - 10h ago
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A Russian General announced plans to occupy the Transnistria region of Moldova on Friday.

Speaking at a defense industry meeting, Brigadier General Rustam Minnekayev, acting commander of Russia’s Central Military District, stated that the Russian Armed Forces plan to “make passage” into the region – in Moldova’s East, bordering Ukraine and less than 30 miles from the port city of Odessa – to create a “land corridor to Crimea,” Russian media reported. Such a corridor would also purport to connect the Russian mainland to Transnistria.

 
 
 
 

Minnekayev stated that the measure was part of Russia’s second phase in its war in Ukraine, which involves establishing full control over the Donbas Region and Ukraine’s coast along the Black Sea. No timeline was provided for the maneuver to begin, however.

In his remarks, Minnekayev cited the strategic value of the region, claiming “control over the south of Ukraine is another exit into Transnistria, where there are also facts pointing to the oppression of the Russian-speaking population.” Transnistria is a separatist region of Moldova – comprised primarily of Russian speakers – akin to Donetsk and Luhansk in Ukraine, which has been autonomously run by a pro-Russian faction since 1990. It is not internationally recognized by any country, including Russia, though nearly 1,500 Russian troops are stationed in the region and its trade is primarily conducted with the Russian mainland.

Ukraine’s Armed Forces had previously warned on April 2 that Russia was mobilizing troops in Transnistria, though this was initially denied by Moldova. Ukraine believes that such mobilization is a prelude to attacks on Odessa, Ukraine’s largest port city and a gateway for its international trade.

Russia’s occupation of Transnistria would expand the conflict with Ukraine to another European nation-state, since it began in late February of 2022.

More ominously, in his remarks, Minnekayev said that Russia was now “at war with the whole world, as it [was] in the Great Patriotic War.”

Russian General Announces Plan to Invade Moldova after Ukraine (msn.com)

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Komodo Commander
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keep an eye on this one

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Finland and Sweden are about to join NATO this summer. 

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" Sweden and Finland 'agree to both apply for NATO membership in May' "




This image was posted along with the article linked to below.

 
  • Russia's invasion of Ukraine sparked desire to join NATO in the Nordic territories
  • The two countries have remained neutral for decades, but co-operate with NATO
  • Sweden's application was previously expected to be submitted in late June
  • Finland's PM said earlier this month an application 'would happen in weeks'
  • But Swedish and Finnish newspapers today reported their respective governments have agreed to apply for NATO membership next month

Full story in the Daily Mail

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Interesting video explaining Russian logistics failures and high casualties in Ukraine

In terms of military personnel, Russian troops have low morale and lack the training. Why Russian troops have low morale? Because being a soldier in Russia doesnt pay you much and being an agressor doesnt give you a strong motive to fight. Besides Russian state has always viewed theirs soldier as being expandable and is willing throw large numbers of troops to win a battle, which give their troops less incentive to fight for the state. Why the lack of training? Because Russian military doctrine favours quantity over quality. For Russia, its better to have many young conscripts and pilots with little training time to make their military look good on papers instead of having fewer but combat tested sergeants. Russian high casualties in Ukraine isnt really out of the ordinary because its how Russian military works.

In terms of military command structure, Putin has installed too many yes men and the structure is plagued with corruption. The commanders are selected based on loyalty to Putin instead of their competence. The money isnt well spent on maintaining equipments but on buying yachts. These are the main causes for the logistics failures of Russian military in Ukraine.

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Heavy Matériel Losses in the War So Far




This image was posted within the article linked to below.

 

 

...
Putin's forces rolled across the border on February 24 from the north, east and south, and quickly made a beeline for Kyiv.

But they were forced to withdraw from the outskirts of the capital in late March and refocus their efforts on a targeted offensive in the eastern Donbas region after Ukraine successfully repelled their advances, inflicting heavy losses.

Russia's vast troop losses have been put down to poor tactical decisions by Russian military leaders and a considerable underestimation of the capabilities of Ukraine's armed forces.
...

Full story in the Daily Mai

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SITUATION ON THE EASTERN FRONT AS OF APRIL 26, 2022

•On April 26, the RF Armed Forces took control of the village of Spivakovka;

• Clashes between the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue in Popasna;

•Clashes between the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue in Maryinka;

•Clashes between the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue in the south of Rubizhne.



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